Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.364630 0.415964 0.471700 0.536684 0.610342 0.691216 0.786727
2025-08-31 0.285380 0.352326 0.430658 0.528977 0.648992 0.790649 0.970485
2025-09-07 0.237624 0.315240 0.412438 0.542853 0.713041 0.927378 1.217658
2025-09-14 0.188637 0.267800 0.373467 0.524398 0.734024 1.014449 1.417699
2025-09-21 0.155135 0.234706 0.347458 0.518196 0.769491 1.124998 1.665357
2025-09-28 0.127985 0.205627 0.322019 0.508219 0.797574 1.228871 1.919177
2025-10-05 0.112768 0.191594 0.316102 0.525671 0.868086 1.403588 2.302280
2025-10-12 0.096788 0.173459 0.300747 0.525605 0.910881 1.541401 2.647934
2025-10-19 0.084851 0.159938 0.290592 0.532140 0.964896 1.703876 3.056073
2025-10-26 0.076023 0.150304 0.285422 0.546164 1.033311 1.898991 3.546167
2025-11-02 0.064439 0.133497 0.264675 0.528623 1.042284 1.991057 3.865988
2025-11-09 0.053726 0.116466 0.240750 0.501134 1.028174 2.038537 4.109083
2025-11-16 0.046341 0.105161 0.226713 0.491935 1.050366 2.161507 4.522818
2025-11-23 0.039967 0.094848 0.213037 0.481336 1.068318 2.279191 4.944536
2025-11-30 0.036206 0.089652 0.209339 0.491401 1.131225 2.496724 5.603450
2025-12-07 0.030890 0.079836 0.193848 0.472842 1.129084 2.578072 5.985469
2025-12-14 0.027130 0.073060 0.184151 0.465946 1.152094 2.716923 6.514006
2025-12-21 0.023732 0.066528 0.173918 0.456036 1.166462 2.838340 7.020445
2025-12-28 0.022093 0.064285 0.173824 0.471062 1.243148 3.113437 7.924545
2026-01-04 0.019889 0.060071 0.168004 0.470510 1.280948 3.301417 8.645260
2026-01-11 0.018206 0.057002 0.164685 0.476017 1.335214 3.537064 9.517485
2026-01-18 0.016965 0.054989 0.163905 0.488333 1.409475 3.833077 10.585024
2026-01-25 0.014858 0.049920 0.153677 0.472415 1.404314 3.923642 11.127947